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Retail & Allocation lesson
Forecast accuracy and bias
The forecast is what we planned to sell. Actual is what we sold.
Try this lesson free →The idea
The forecast is what we planned to sell. Actual is what we sold:
Formulas
( Forecast − Actual ) ÷ Actual × 100Key points
Forecast accuracyHow close the forecast came to what actually sold.
Work it outError % is the gap between actual and forecast (ignoring + or −), divided by actual, × 100.
BiasWhich way it was off: above actual means over-buying, below means missed sales.
Accuracy says how far off the plan was. Bias says which way. A steady bias means the forecast needs adjusting.
Practice
1. What was the forecast accuracy for Audio?
Error 200 ÷ actual 800 = 25%, so accuracy = 100 − 25 = 75%2. What was the forecast accuracy for Cases?
Error 200 ÷ actual 1,000 = 20%, so accuracy = 100 − 20 = 80%3. Tap the category with the most negative bias: it sold the most above its forecast.
Power banks sold 400 against a forecast of 300: a −25% bias.4. Audio's forecast has been 25% too high for three months. What should the planner do?
Lower the Audio forecastLearn it by doing. This lesson is a short hands-on level on Bampaa: see it work, then build and write it yourself, with instant feedback.
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